One year ago, Donald Trump won a transformative election victory, sweeping all seven swing states, the popular vote, and moving all fifty states redder than they were in 2020.
How did he do it?
By motivating men, young men in particular, and sports fans who were fed up with the insanity of men winning women’s sports championships. I wrote about the victory in my new book, ‘Balls,’ which was released on Tuesday.
The book addresses the landslide Trump victory, but it also asks an important question when looking forward prospectively: Now that Trump, unfortunately, isn’t able to run for reelection, how do Republicans ensure that the Trump MAGA coalition extends, and even grows, beyond his own presidency?
In 2024, the two most conservative voting groups in America were male senior citizens and young men under the age of thirty.
This has never happened before in any of our lives.
It was a cultural transformation overnight.
Trump also won record support among White, Black, Asian and Hispanic men as well, but that same momentum didn’t extend to 2025. Indeed, Tuesday’s voting results paint an ominous picture of what 2026 and 2028 could look like if young men aren’t motivated to show up and vote like they did in 2024.
Consider the numbers: in 2024, Trump received 1.968 million votes in New Jersey and 2.075 million votes in Virginia. While he lost both states by narrow margins to Kamala Harris — by roughly 5% — he received more votes than the Virginia Democrat candidate for governor, Abigail Spanberger — who won Virginia with 1.961 million votes — and the New Jersey Democrat candidate for governor, Mikie Sherrill — who won New Jersey with 1.792 million votes.
So how did both Democratic gubernatorial candidates win election comfortably despite receiving fewer votes than Trump did in their states a year ago? Yes, partly because it was an off-year cycle and overall turnout trended down, but they won comfortably because roughly 600,000 Trump voters didn’t show up to vote in 2025 who did show up to vote in 2024.
Who are these voters?
Young men, sports fans, blue collar workers, the Trump MAGA base that will come out to support Trump when he’s on the ballot, but won’t show up when he’s not on the ballot.
So will these voters return in 2026 and in 2028 when Trump isn’t on the ballot? That depends on how well future Republican candidates speak to these voters. Some of y’all will think I’m crazy for telling you this, but as soon as the 2026 mid-term elections are over, expect a pivot so rapid it will make your head spin — Democrats in 2027 will all argue that Trump’s unique political gifts end with him, that MAGA is over without Trump as its leader. Yep, from ‘He’s Hitler!’ to ‘He’s the most talented Republican president in any of our lifetimes,’ almost overnight.
I’m telling you, it’s coming.
Because Democrats are going to bank on Trump as a political unicorn, a candidate so talented that only he could power a coalition as substantial as he won in 2024.
So what do Republicans need to do to extend and even grow Trump’s appeal with young men? I think it’s a combination of three things, wed the policy and the personal together, as Trump has been uniquely talented at doing.
1. On the policy front, the 2024 election was about the economy, the border, and crime
It was as easy as EBC.
