The UN Climate Change Conference, COP30, starts Nov. 6 with a world leader summit and runs to Nov. 21. It will emphasize ‘the urgency of the climate crisis and the need for accelerated and collective climate actions.’ However, Microsoft founder Bill Gates just issued a memo aimed at COP30 attendees proposing a fundamental shift in priorities: focus on poverty reduction rather than climate modification.
Gates, who previously gave primary importance to measures to reduce near-term emissions, has drawn criticism for arguing that ‘a metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature change [is] improving lives. Our chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world’s poorest countries.’
His argument rests on three key premises: climate change poses serious challenges but does not represent an existential threat to civilization; temperature metrics alone inadequately measure climate-related progress; and improved health and economic prosperity provide the most effective defense against climate change.
Gates provides data to show that achieving net-zero emissions would result in a 1.9-degree Celsius temperature increase from 1990 levels, while inaction would produce a 2.9-degree increase. This one-degree differential, he argues, suggests that resources allocated toward net-zero goals might yield greater humanitarian benefits if redirected toward energy access and disease prevention.
The correlation between energy consumption and economic prosperity is striking. Nations with annual per capita incomes below $1,145 consume approximately 1,100 kilowatts per person annually, while those exceeding $14,005 in per capita income utilize 55,000 kilowatts per person annually, according to data cited by Gates.
The genuine inequity, Gates contends, lies in human development disparities. A child born in South Sudan faces mortality risks 39 times higher before age five compared to a Swedish child. These vulnerable populations require enhanced access to energy, nutrition and healthcare infrastructure.
The relationship between economic development and energy consumption is unequivocal: no nation has achieved high per capita income with low per capita energy usage, and conversely, no country maintains high energy consumption alongside persistent poverty.
Increased energy access facilitates improved living standards through enhanced productivity, agricultural advancement and household consumption, thereby reducing dependence on subsistence farming. Energy availability either provides farmers with modern agricultural technologies or enables economic mobility to pursue alternative livelihoods.
